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Obama and Palin could be the next president and vice president? Strange, but true. It's extremely unlikely, yes, but an interesting possible scenario... If the presidential election winds up in an electoral-college tie, 269-269; the Democrat-controlled House would pick Obama as president, but the Senate, with former Democrat Joe Lieberman voting with Republicans, deadlocks at 50-50; so Vice President Dick Cheney would break the tie and could make Republican Sarah Palin his successor.
Or... In January, if the newly elected House is unable to achieve a majority to choose a president after a 269-269 tie, but the Senate, which most likely will be controlled by Democrats by then, can pick Biden from the Democratic ticket. If the House is still deadlocked by Jan. 20, Biden becomes acting president.
But wait, there's more... If both the House and the Senate fail to select the president and the vice president by Jan. 20, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi becomes acting president until everything is sorted out.
Interesting! I love these sort of political numbers! I think no one can predict how the electoral college will play out.
I was thinking about the Senate - I think a lot of eyes will be on Chuck Hagel, a Republican who has refused to endorse McCain. His wife is a well-known Obama-supporter, but hard to say what Hagel would do. Can you imagine the pressure in that situation? Yikes. If Hagel goes over to Obama, there isn't a tie. I haven't found any dem senators supporting McCain, but there could be some I guess.
I really really really am so interested to see how the electoral votes play out - obviously Obama is well ahead in most scenarios, but McCain is no way out of it, and has clearly shifted his money to the one path left for him (combo of FL, OH and some other close states, abandoning some of the battegrounds).
I suspect I'll be up all night on November 4th, I am just a political geek, really.
Well, the "plumbers" made a big impact in the Nixon administration!
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Obama and Palin could be the next president and vice president? Strange, but true. It's extremely unlikely, yes, but an interesting possible scenario... If the presidential election winds up in an electoral-college tie, 269-269; the Democrat-controlled House would pick Obama as president, but the Senate, with former Democrat Joe Lieberman voting with Republicans, deadlocks at 50-50; so Vice President Dick Cheney would break the tie and could make Republican Sarah Palin his successor.
Or... In January, if the newly elected House is unable to achieve a majority to choose a president after a 269-269 tie, but the Senate, which most likely will be controlled by Democrats by then, can pick Biden from the Democratic ticket. If the House is still deadlocked by Jan. 20, Biden becomes acting president.
But wait, there's more... If both the House and the Senate fail to select the president and the vice president by Jan. 20, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi becomes acting president until everything is sorted out.
That is very interesting, I hope you don't mind I put your theory in my blog michaeattheconvention.wordpress.com. If you want I will take it out.
That is very interesting, I hope you don't mind I put your theory in my blog michaeattheconvention.wordpress.com. If you want I will take it out.
I don't mind Michael, but I can't take the credit for coming up with the scenario. I heard it first on the radio, and then read the details from the Washington Times. Here's a link to the article --> http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...lege-doomsday/.
Here's another fun fact from the article: The current system originated back when oil lamps were used for light, and travel occurred with horse-drawn carriages. Due to such logistics, after the presidential vote on the first Tuesday in November, electors technically have until the Monday after the second Wednesday in December (this year on Dec. 15) to reach the state capital to cast their ballots for president.
And even though the percentage is low that a tie could happen, it's not as farfetched as you'd think. If you take the 2004 electorate map and switch Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado to a blue state; and New Hampshire to a red state (all which polls indicate could happen), there is your tie.
I don't know how close the race will be at this point (I think anything could happen), but I do really enjoy watching those close races, and staying up all night to see coverage.
A really great website, run by statistician geeks, is www.fivethirtyeight.com Its entire purpose is to run statistical analysis on the electoral outcome, over and over again, shifting states based on latest findings, etc. These two guys are cool!
Today they talk about Virginia, and how close the race could become again.
You can scroll through the page and see all of the scenarios and percentages, it is updated constantly. Highly cool site if you enjoy numbers and statistical analysis.
Ok, I am an engineer and like math and am told very often, even by those that I love (my DW) that I am a geek, but the guys that run that website are worse geeks than me!!!!
Wally - isn't that website awesome? I love it! geeky-ness at its best!
Wondering with the news this afternoon, if this scenario just became pretty much impossible. Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Republican in the Senate, was just convicted. Can a convicted felon still vote? He was up for re-election, and already faced a tough race. Would the governor of his state (Alaska - so Sarah Palin!) appoint a temporary lame-duck, who would then vote fOR Palin, or would the winner of the election for the Senate seat get to vote?
Tim
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